Soft Power Under Geopolitical Tensions

China’s Panda Diplomacy Recall Against Japan in 2026

Abstract

This study examines the limits of soft power under geopolitical tension through China’s recall of the giant pandas Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei from Tokyo’s Ueno Zoo in January 2026. China had loaned the pandas to Japan as part of a long-standing panda diplomacy that sustained friendly bilateral ties. The recall followed Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s November 2025 remarks on Taiwan, which escalated tensions between the two states. This research applies a descriptive qualitative method, using documentation of official statements, media coverage, and policy texts from November 2025 to February 2026, a period that spans the trigger, Beijing’s escalating response, the announcement of the pandas’ departure, and the original loan expiry date. The data are analyzed using Joseph Nye’s soft power concept, with attention to the sender’s side of the relationship. The results show three findings. First, Takaichi’s remarks shifted the bilateral discourse into a high-political security dispute, which undermined the sender credibility and audience reception that soft power requires. Second, Beijing stepped away from cultural attraction: it recalled the pandas about a month before the loan’s scheduled expiry and granted neither a renewal nor a new loan, while applying travel advisories, trade restrictions, and export controls in other domains. Third, because the recall worked as a withheld benefit used to signal displeasure, it is better understood as a movement from soft power toward coercive signaling than as an exercise of soft power itself. The paper contributes a sender-side account of soft power’s limits and connects the case to the wider debate on China’s coercive diplomacy. It concludes that when high-political security issues take center stage, low-political cultural attraction reaches its limit and is set aside to safeguard core national interests.